We finished 1 point off Spurs in 4th, and 2 points off Chelsea in 3rd last season. It was an utter clusterfuck in April / May, and our away form continued to be abysmal.
Factoring in the considerable strengthening of our first team at CB, LB, CM and RW, we should be pushing high 70s for points this season. However, I can’t envisage an 80+ season with our defence. We might not ship 51 goals this season, but it is arguably still the weakest unit out of the top 6. Notwithstanding, a 7-10 goal improvement will provide a huge positive points swing.
Spurs have got stronger. Managed to keep the core of their defence together whilst adding power and creativity to their midfield. Given their superior defence, I make them favourites for third.
Chelsea are undoubtedly weaker. Inexperienced manager with new ideas, no Hazard, losing their most experienced defender, transfer ban blocking them from buying in January - we should finish above Chelsea.
United have significantly upgraded their starting defence with AWB and Maguire. However, they have an unsettled Pogba and lost Herrera + Lukaku without direct replacement. On paper, both their midfield and attack has lost quality and goals. Again, we should finish above United.
I predict a solid 4th place finish. I also predict that it won’t be as tight as last year - we should seal it with a few games to go. We’ve improved the squad dramatically and created a small gap between ourselves and Chelsea / United. I want Emery to be replaced at the end of the season irrespective of a 3rd / 4th place finish, but if we finish outside top 4 again then he should be sacked without any deliberation.