The UK Economy

This should be fun…

Edit: They really need to stop using the stock market and GDP as the main ways to measure an economy.

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It’s so hard to tell what will happen.

Last I saw, national savings were up 28% on last year (very good, this is where all the government borrowing is coming from) due to people having less stuff to spend money on which is good.

However, will these savings just sit in bank accounts earning no interest or will people go out and blow it on pubs, holidays, retail etc. when the country opens up again which would be good for the economy?

A lot of economists are speculating (probably rightly so) that there’ll be significant lag in the economy which means that with furlough etc. we won’t see the full extent of unemployment until Q1/Q2 this year which will have a huge effect on people’s savings, house prices, spending etc. One report was expecting house prices to fall by 14% this year after the stamp duty holiday expires.

Basically, no-one knows anything because this is a situation we haven’t experienced in 100 years and the world has changed a lot since then and there are so many variables that will affect the economy in the end.

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Yeah not to mention interest rates are pretty much at a flat zero rate so the incentive there already is to spend and not save. Right now inflation is at a rate where you effectively lose money by sitting on it.

On the housing market front I am extremely intrigued to see what happens here. The stamp duty holiday really, really stimulated that market but now I fear those who are awaiting completion that may miss the March deadline could capitulate that market.

Stock markets are no tool to analyse the economy as the pandemic has shown just how disconnected the 2 are.

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Yeah agreed, non-existent interest rates are prompting people to either spend their money or invest it in the stock market which is artificially inflating the stock market.

Also 2020 had the highest level of venture capital funding ever, and when you add with that the stock market, you realise that really it’s all controlled by billionaires and institutional investors and so clearly not an indicator of how your average person is doing.

The fact that house prices hit an all time high last year is also crazy to me, and several of my close friends closed on houses last year so I’m also intrigued to see what happens to the housing market in the UK when unemployment and the stamp duty holiday finally catches up with the market.

Even rental prices have fallen massively. My girlfriend and I were looking for fun this summer, and rental prices in Fulham (fucking Fulham!) were down 15-20%, it was nuts. I don’t see that getting better any time soon.

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I’m not surprised.

My girlfriend and I were very, very close to not renewing our lease here in London and moving back to Bath last June and I’d have been totally OK with it.

I even asked my work if moving forward after the pandemic I could work from home 2-3 days a week to make the move happen and they were pretty receptive to it.

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They should do. Competition amongst employers to attract the best talent will mean you have to offer the same perks if the company across the road are doing it!

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Yeah unfortunately a monthly train ticket from Bath to Paddington is almost £900 so it just didn’t add up in the long run :joy:

£900 a month for a train journey that’s 1hr20mins - this country is fucked haha

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