I don’t think this paints the true image of things at all.
This is the PL, no game is easy.
Beating the teams you mentioned isn’t a small feat at all, and it’s essential to our chances of getting Top 4. This is how you rack up points and build up confidence.
Beating teams with a low block was a big issue for us the previous seasons and it cost us a lot.
I think the biggest issue though the past 2 seasons has been our slow start and pretty much cutting our legs early on which made it impossible to compete in the second half of the season.
If we keep this up and be in and around Top 4 in January then we certainly have a very good chance at getting that 4th spot.
We are only scoring an average of just over a goal a game and there have been several wins this season, against bottom of the PL teams, where we have won, but unconvincingly.
Top four teams need to be performing at a higher level than we are, as well as scoring more goals, to get in the CL places.
We might get a EL place but, unless we start scoring and having more of a goal threat, top four is out of our reach.
Do we get extra points for scoring more? A win’s a win.
If we are analyzing things to this extent it’s worth then noting that a good defence often gets you higher up the table.
We often had teams that used to score for fun but couldn’t defend to save their lives which ultimately cost us.
I get what you’re saying, obviously it would be nice if we scored more goals. But still think your analysis is too simplistic. In most of these games we were easily the better team. It’s not like we are getting flukey wins.
And not sure how you can say top 4 is out of reach when we are literally in reach of it without scoring loads of goals.
It’s true that successful teams usually have a good, well organised defence but the problem is, in several games where we have won by just one goal, we could have easily conceded which would have lost us points.
We have also had a few unconvincing wins this season where we haven’t deserved all the points and this is because we are scoring so few goals.
If our scoring rate carries on as it is, we’re only going to score around fifty goals, which is nowhere near good enough for a top four place, no matter how good our defence is.
If this was a blip, it wouldn’t be too much of a problem but we have struggled for goals, and our attack has looked infective, since Arteta became manager and doesn’t look like changing.
The concern is more about offensive capability ie can we score more if we want/need to?
When other top sides go into 5th gear for offensive production they have a higher probability of getting it, which makes turns losses to draws and draws to wins. Arsenal’s probability in this area is low.
Check the numbers, this team isn’t particularly stellar defensively
Is it not? The two outliers v Liverpool and City may not be pretty but overall, our defence is one of the strongest in the league. We’ve got 6 clean sheets so far this season. Only 3 teams have more at 8 and that’s Chelsea, Liverpool and City.
Arsenal don’t rank within the top 5 of any stat used to measure defensive efficiency except for clean sheet % which doesn’t really accurately measure a side’s collective defensive ability in isolation.
Our shot and shots on target faced is in the bottom half, that’s definitely not indicative of a great defence certainty not one on course to make top 4. I don’t value xGA but arsenal are bottom half there too
If we’re going this deep with stats I can bring out the year table for 2021 where it has us 5th, on level points with Liverpool who are 4th and we are just 6 points off of 2nd.
You could but it wouldn’t be indicative of where this side is at currently defensively or that we’re on course for a top 4 spot this season.
Shots/SOT faced is a pretty surface level stat, what evidence is there that “our defence is one of the strongest in the league” Is it just clean sheets?
That in conjunction to actually watching our games and seeing how we defend, in comparison to how others do in the PL.
I don’t hate stats, I think they’re very useful but what I’m seeing will always come first.
When we had that good run with Emery a few years ago it was obvious watching our games that we were extremely lucky in most games. Stats backed it up but even if they didn’t what was visible in the pitch always came first.
The biggest issue with our defensive stats is that we’ve been absolutely battered by City/Chelsea/Liverpool but quite good otherwise. You can see this in both goals allowed and more advanced metrics like XG.
During our last 10 matches, we’ve given up XGA > 1 only four times, Liverpool, two matches in which we had multi goal leads and just defended in the second half (Leicester and Villa), and Brighton. Largely we’ve been able to control games and limit the opponent pretty effectively when matches are still being most decided.
I’m worried about our attack but pretty optimistic about the defense.
I get what you’re saying, but I don’t value the subjective eye test over data
@Powderfinger you can come any conclusion you like when you start excluding data, only reasonable to examine in totality. If Arsenal only do well against bottom feeders but get pumped against top teams how is that one the strongest defences in the league
I agree that cherry-picking data can be dangerous. But also there are some plausible reasons to think that our performances against the non top three are more predictive of how we will fare in the future against the non top three. And our hopes for top four will largely rest on those games against poorer sides over the rest of the season.
Who outside the top 3 has been convincing though.
There’s a reason for that. It’s the chasing teams don’t have consistency. It’s like when people want long runs of wins as progress. It doesn’t happen with the teams who are behind the other three.
They’ll all have good games or poor results. Those reasons you highlight for us will equally apply for the others around us.
it hurts really bad that we have to ask this question, but not only ask this question but for soooooooooo long we have had to ask this question just wish Arsenal could get back to the days that we were actually feared and teams used to read playing us. Now it is ‘its only Arsenal we should strive for 3 points here’
Given that top 6 is a must and top 4 would be fantastic, we’re in a strong position at the moment. I think there is a good case to say we’re the best team in the league outside those top three sides.
