Well, shit.
This is why I didn’t want the gap with Chelsea, Liverpool and City to open up. Hoping for a Liverpool harakiri a la early 2021 for current Top 3.
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If the teams playing then continue to play how they have been and finish their chances I’m confident, Palace, Brentford and Brighton can all get a result against Utd.
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hopefully🤞
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First 6 are very winnable and certainly momentum builders for them.
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That’s why we needed to at least maintain a 5 point gap over United with at least drawing last night.
I’d say 1 Loss (West Ham), a 3 Draws (Wolves, Palace, Watford) and 7 Wins (The Rest)
45 Points by Matchweek 27.
Have to consider the potential new manager bounce for United. Certain players will think they have a fresh start and hence will be more motivated, at least to start off with. There are potential issues though if Ragnick wants to assert full gegenpresse from the start, without any compromise, but this is an experienced guy, so he probably will be pragmatic.
I think Us, West Ham and Spurs will see out the minor European places.
Hopefully Europa instead of the Conference League. Please not the Conference League.
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So we’ve still got Chelsea and Spurs away as another 2 guaranteed games we won’t win.
26 points I reckon.
Get three points consistently in matches against middle and lower half teams and you probably can still get Top 4 even after losing 8 or 9 matches in a season. The theory here I think is United, Spuds, and others will drop more points against the teams we get maximum points against.
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It pretty much boils down to this:
Average forth place team (as of last year, don’t think I updated this analysis) for past 10 years had: 71.4 points
Average forth place team in just the last 5 years had: 70.7
We are on pace for 62-63 points and in 5th place, only 1 point out of 4th. It is very possible we see a 4th place team with just 65-66 points this year… it would be great if we finish 4th, but you can’t really say we have progressed all that much if we are still not getting out of the mid-60’s. This season there are just 3 good teams - that is the dynamic that leads us to this opportunity.
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That’s why the next 6 games this month are crucial
Home
Southampton
West Ham
Wolves
Away
Everton
Leeds
Norwich
We really need 5 wins as we know our failings against the top sides.
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After seeing us fail to capitalize against weak opposition (as we often do) I think we’ll be just short of top 4. Maybe 5-6th.
Once again… no.
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United and Spurs nailed on to finish above us now that they have good managers and we are stuck with a dirt pounder. West Ham we might have a shot at finishing above, don’t think they can keep it up. So yeah I’d say sixth or so battling it out with Leicester and the Hammers.
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What is a ‘dirt pounder’?
In the dictionary it says the expression “Dirt Pounder,” is a slang term for a“useless football manager” also known as an “Arteta.”
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