I think these models have trouble fully accounting for the summer window. They try to do it but they’re mainly based off performances the previous year and Fulham was a much much better Championship side than the others.
And this takes into account new signings, etc. or based on historic shit?
I think its both but mainly performance level from the previous year (both results and XG type stuff, and weighted toward the second half of the season).
Watching them draw at Mansfield in the old second division on the big match back in the day is still a nice memory.