Wolves

English Football
#41

So Wolves officially end their first season back in 7th place with 57 points. Now the other day there was a small debate whether or not they can really go on and improve their points tally and geniunely challenge for top 6 next season. Some think they will, others are not as optimistic.

So it got me thinking and I’ve taken the time (this took bloody ages to compile, so ya all better read it :mustafi:) and decided to analysis how each promoted team, who stayed up, has fared, from their first, to their second seasons after promotion to the PL. For reference, we’ll be using the last 20 seasons.

First season----------------------------------------------- ||Second season||

1999/2000 Sunderland 7th 58pts Bradford 17th 36pts ||2000/01|| Sunderland 7th 57pts 20th Bradford 26pts R

2000/01 Ipswich 5th 66pts Charlton 9th 52pts ||2001/02|| Charlton 14th 44pts Ipswich 18th 36pts R

2001/02 Fulham 13th 44pts Blackburn 10th 46pts Bolton 16th 40pts ||2002/03|| Blackburn 6th 60pts Fulham 14th 48pts Bolton 17th 44pts

2002/03 Man City 9th 51pts Birmingham 13th 48pts ||2003/04|| Birmingham 10th 50pts Man City 16th 41pts

2003/04 Portsmouth 13th 45pts ||2004/05|| Portsmouth 16th 39pts

2004/05 West Brom 17th 34pts ||2005/06|| West Brom 19th 30pts R

2005/06 West Ham 9th 55pts Wigan 10th 51pts ||2006/07|| West Ham 15th 41pts Wigan 17th 38pts

2006/07 Reading 8th 55pts ||2007/08|| Reading 18th 36pts R

2007/08 Sunderland 15th 39pts ||2008/09|| Sunderland 16th 36pts

2008/09 Stoke 12th 45pts Hull City 17th 35pts ||2009/10|| Stoke 11th 47pts Hull City 19th 30pts R

2009/10 Birmingham 9th 50pts Wolves 15th 38pts ||2010/11|| Wolves 17th 40pts Birmingham 18th 39pts R

2010/11 West Brom 11th 47pts Newcastle 12th 46pts ||2011/12|| Newcastle 5th 65pts West Brom 10th 47pts

2011/12 11th Swansea 47pts Norwich 12th 47pts QPR 17th 37pts ||2012/13|| Swansea 9th 46pts Norwich 11th 44pts QPR 20th 25pts R

2012/13 West Ham 10th 46pts Southampton 14th 41pts ||2013/14|| Southampton 8th 56pts West Ham 13th 40pts

2013/14 Crystal Palace 11th 45pts Hull City 16th 37pts ||2014/15|| Crystal Palace 10th 48pts Hull City 18th 35pts R

2014/15 Leicester City 14th 41pts ||2015/16|| Leicester City 1st 81pts

2015/16 Watford 13th 45pts Bournemouth 16th 42pts ||2016/17|| Bournemouth 9th 46pts Watford 17th 40pts

2016/17 Burnley 16th 40pts ||2017/18|| Burnley 7th 54pts

2017/18 Newcastle 10th 44pts Brighton 15th 40pts Huddersfield 16th 37pts ||2018/19|| Newcastle 13th 45pts Brighton 17th 36pts Huddersfield 20th R 16pts

So from our sample of 35 teams (some promoted more than once), we can see that from one season to the next, points improvement happened 13 times, giving us a percentage of 37.1%.

In terms of position improvement, this has occurred 12 times, equalling 34.2%.

From these 35 teams, 9 teams have gone on to be relegated in their second season after promotion.

Leicester produced the largest position and points gains, during 2014-2016, going from 14th 41pts to winning an unexpected title, with 81pts. If we take away Leicester’s extremely unusual seasons, the next best points increase is Newcastle, between 2010-2012, by 19 points to move up from 12th to 5th. Again, if we ignore Leicester, the next biggest jump in position placement was Burnley, during 2016-2018, going up 9 places from 16th to 7th.

The team with the biggest performance drop was Ipswich during 2000-2002, falling from 5th with 66pts to 18th and relegation with 36pts. The worst team after that is Reading. Between 2006-08, they descended from 8th with 55pts, to 18th with 36pts. I know Huddersfield earned 21pts less this season but they only dropped 4 places. Reading’s drop more dramatic.

Take what you will regards to these stats. But over the course of the past 20 years, it appears that promoted teams only improve in their second seasons, just a third of the time. So it’s not an easy thing to achieve, so this will be intriguing to see how Wolves tackle next season.

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#42

It depends on the ambitions of the owners and if they want to build on what they have.
They have already got Jimenez to sign a new contract and if they strengthen significantly, they could start to challenge for a top six place.

But, like you say, it doesn’t always work like that, and some clubs struggle in their second season in the PL.

I think they might invest quite a lot and possibly more than us, and certainly more than the clubs around them like West Ham, Watford and even Leicester, so it will be interesting to see what signings they make.

#43

You need a hobby :laughing:

This Wolves team isn’t just a regular promoted team. It’s a team with money and Mendes behind it.

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#44

Basically this haha. Wolves aren’t a normal promoted team

#45

It will come down to whether or not the owners are cunts who will just spend spend spend or if they have limits. You need to be the former to break into the top 6 as it stands now and even then it pretty much has to go 90% right in terms of not pissing the money away a la some of Evertons signings.

You will also have that top six tier and some of the bigger European clubs looking at your players and managers if you do do well.

It can be done…it might be done but it is not going to be in any way easy.

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#46

How many times do you reckon you type out the word ambition? :smile:

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#47

Wolves are too good to be in a relegation scrap next season. They have genuine quality in the side. Actually backed them for 6th this season, but 7th is still great for them for their first season back in the Prem in years.

They are a solid outfit, and if they can keep hold of their key players and add to the team, they can be a genuine challenger for the top 6 next season.

#48

I think the “position improvement” stat goes off a cliff when you get into the top 6, especially at this time. Even as poor as ManU, Arsenal, Spurs, and Chelsea have finished, it reads:

3 - Chelsea - 72
4 - Spurs - 71
5 - Arse - 70
6 - ManU - 66

7 - Wolves - 57

They are 9 behind ManU, who gave up… and 13 behind us… we know ManU will spend and I doubt we see us slip below 70 next season, probably at least improving a few points. That is a long, long way and we may see them lose a player or two and have to reload.

It isn’t impossible, as we’ve seen with LC, but I think the reality is that the finances (and depth in particular) have caused there to be an interesting issue happening. I would posit (needs more study) that the quality of FIRST teams between say 3rd and 7-8th and the next tier have gotten CLOSER. But I don’t think the quality of DEPTH has caught up, making it very, very hard for those teams to accumulate enough points over 38.

In other words, I think we will see more difficult and tight games from more teams more often, but I think we will still see a gulf due to depth.

Obviously, we’ll see - the only teams with massive, massive financial advantages are City, Utd, and Chelsea (maybe)… then you have structurally rich teams in Arsenal and Pool and then another tier of finances where Spurs land - reality is, they are closer to the others in many ways, although the recent financial reporting has me questioning that a bit.

I think we haven’t seen the new equilibrium settle in with the new TV deals - those teams have only just started investing a lot and we may see it go one of three ways 1) The new deals help the smaller teams, but also help the bigger teams and disproportionately so it doesn’t seem like much changes; or 2) It actually increases the gaps (in absolute terms, even if % delta is less) between the haves and have nots and makes it even harder to break into top 4/6; or 3) The rising tide mixes it all up and we see more frequent cases where one of the big teams falls out of top 6 on a regular basis.

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#49

Let’s not pretend you’re not just a little bit impressed by my buldging brain to come up with post :xhaka2:

But seriously though. Just to clarify to the other posts, like I said the other day. I’m not suggesting for a second that scenarios such as Wolves fighting relegation or falling off are going to happen. They should very much become an established Premier League side over the next few seasons.

But it’s still quite a gap to make up to the teams ahead and they won’t have that unknown factor about them next season. Teams will prepare and treat Wolves a little differently going forwards now. Next season there are greater expections placed on them. And if they also end up with Europa League, that can often cause teams headaches to have to juggle mid week games.

But we shall see. If more teams do close the gap to the big 6, then the League is in a healthy place. I’m surprised Nuno hasn’t been targeted by a bigger club, if Wolves continue their progress, that might be another thing they’ll have to fight hard to retain him.

#50

Are Wolves actually in the Europa next season? Or is it predicated on whether or not Watford beat Man City in the cup final?

#51

They are if City win the FA Cup.

If Watford win it they get it

#52

I don’t think people give credit to well spent money. City and Chelsea have yes, been splashing money, and have climbed their way to England’s elite with that, but their moves have been thoroughly calculated.
We’ve had a lot of clubs trying to buy their way up with or at least near, the big boys but many of them failed. Hell, Liverpool and Man Utd have made a mockery of their reputation giving away to crazy spending ending up with shit in their hands, with Liverpool lately realizing it’s not how much you spend but how.
Wolves risked a lot in Championship and it paid off in the end, could’ve gone sideways but they made sure to spend smartly.
They spent again after being promoted and have not only shown tremendous potential for the future but finished 7th in their first season back. They’re a fine example of how clubs with some money ammunition should operate in the PL.

#53

Good win today for United at Partizan.

7 Likes
#54

watched the game, they played like shit for the most part, had one shot on goal and scored a penalty as usual. Lost total shots 15-5 if that says anything.

#55

Hey mate, there’s a Man United thread for that kind of analysis. Here’s the link:

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#56

I’ve been chucking at this 1-2 combo for a good 5 mins :arteta:

Well played

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#57

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#58
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#59

Just realised they’ve only managed 8 or 9 wins this season. Clearly struggling this year. So thankful we didn’t consider Nuno as a manager. As bad as Arteta is, I think him and Nuno operate at a similar level.

#60

Obviously Jota has been a big loss but I actually think Doherty has too for them.
Hasn’t looked good at Spurs but he was quite integral at Wolves.

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