This is precisely why I focus heavily on league results in the evaluation of a manager (re: Emery), hence why it’s frustrating to see us appoint a manager with such a large sample of not particularly impressive league results (which, is, crucially, not the same as appointing a manager like Tuchel with a mixed bag of league results in a much smaller track record; anyways, Tuchel’s 78 pts with Dortmund in 34 games in his first season and the style of play there is easily a more impressive league performance than any on Emery’s record, which, for a club in our state, which is obligated to overachieve at this point in time not only to get closer to competing for the league, but also to qualify for CL spots**). There is just too much noise in one game finals to make anything of it. And when you are evaluating performance in cup competitions, it’s important to just focus on how they are generally performing; that is, Klopp has a history of getting deep into the CL, which mirrors his history of doing well in his league. The opposite approach tends to end up in Arsenal4TheTreble analyses, even insisting in recent years that Wenger is better, and basing it on such final records
**relying on EL for CL qualification is a loser’s bet, for the same reasons why a better measure of a manager’s ability is the one I am saying.
I’ll remind again about a crucial part of the logic of why I find (found) the Emery appointment so alarming, ill-thought, and porous: Arsenal is obligated to overachieve, if it is to make up ground. For instance, this season, with Tottenham not having a spent in the summer, and United having its Mourinho catastrophe, we’ve been gift-wrapped a chance to overachieve and sneak into the top 4. With a decent, competent, but not particularly good manager like Emery, it’s not looking like we will take advantage of that. In the future, the gap between us and Liverpool and City, Chelsea likely, and United should they ever hire a competent manager, is only likely to grow until they present us with a window of opportunity through an end in cycle (something that’s not assured; who knows how long Guardiola and Klopp will continue at their clubs/how long it will take for their methods to wear down in effectiveness/if they will not simply replace them with equally top managers)…you simply do not make up an already important competitive gap with an inferior manager to your competition. Hence why I felt it was paramount that we chose someone who at least has the potential to be that (you will see also, that I strongly disagreed in years leading up to Wenger fired about the profile of manager we should be looking for, for these very reasons, @ljungbergkamp should remember this, as you were one of the people who touted the merits of a “hold the fort” and “bring us back up to speed with modern tactics” proven, safe bet type; the risk of stagnation is really not that much different from the risk of your manager being rather incompetent, the result is almost the same (something I’m reminded of with Emery’s time at Valencia: how different might the landscape of la Liga, and indeed Europe, look if they had hired an up and coming manager like Simeone instead of Atléti, instead of a custodian type who just kinda held water, in Emery)…let’s say we had hired a more risky proposition like Buvac, Arteta, Fonseca, or even Setién (though I really don’t think there’s any more risk in Setién than Emery, Setién has already performed better in his two full seasons in La Liga than Emery has in any), and they didn’t work out, how much worse off would we be? United is in full disaster mode, and are still 6th.
In a case like this, where treading water and all the fluff terms about “modernising tactics” (any manager would’ve done this, honestly, which is why this is a really meaningless statement that is used so much in defence of Emery and his appointment) and transitioning us into a post-Wenger future (again, almost any manager would’ve done this, extremely low bar) and downright catastrophe (ie, hire an Arteta type, and he turns out to be nothing special) really are pretty similar outcomes, and the opportunity cost lost is, on the other hand, massive, it really made no sense to make such a conservative, spineless, and cynical hiring like Emery. Hence why I take it a step further, and call it a sign of incompetence (I only hope mostly that of Gazidis’), and yes, there’s a very good chance that we look back with the benefit of history and see that we lost a massive opportunity to build something and instead fell into an era of stagnation and acceptance of a Tottenham like purgatory (which, mind, Tottenham’s positive cycle will end, Poch will leave eventually, and Levy will probably not strike gold again, but even then, that’s still City, Liverpool, Chelsea, and United ahead of us–should the inevitable happen and United finally make a decent managerial hire–and likely getting further ahead).