I’m not so worried about there being a direct nuclear war between Russia and the West (in the first instance at least).
I’m more worried about what happens if Russia starts nuking Ukraine.
I can’t see that the West would just standby and watch, and if the West then marches on Russia to stop it, that could start WW3.
MAD is fine, but it provides distinct boundaries for what will and won’t cause an automatic MAD response.
And I don’t imagine nukes fired upon a foreign country will be included in that. So then it comes down to individuals’ decisions, and Putin might take the risk that those individuals wouldn’t do anything about it and risk a world war.
Just like Hitler took the risk that invading Poland wouldn’t provoke WW2, (that’s what I remember learning at school anyway)
I just don’t see Putin nuking Ukraine either. His whole reason for this “special military operation” is to save the Ukranians from themselves as well as the Russians living in Ukraine, that doesn’t really jive with a nuclear holocaust. Unless of course it’s actually just a land-grab to extend Russia’s territory, which doesn’t make sense either because then he’s just glassing an area that he wants and makes it uninhabitable.
The use of low yield tactical nukes doesn’t make sense either, because this war doesn’t have traditional mass-congregations of troops. The frontline is very long and the Ukranian battalions are very spread out and very mobile, it’s not like there’s a FOB with 30,000 troops just sitting there waiting to be nuked.
The West has now drawn a very clear line in the sand. Georgia 2008, cheeky we’ll allow it. Crimea, 2014, very cheeky we’ll allow it but now we’re going to help the Ukrainians gear up (we’ve been training their forces and equipping them since 2014). Ukraine 2022, the game stops now.
It’s very clear that the West will go to basically every length to help defend Ukraine with the exception of actual boots on the ground, because the West has decided that a point needs to be made to bad actors like Russia and China. There is only so much the West will tolerate in the name of peace and geo-political relations.
If Putin tries to nuke Ukraine, he knows there will be very real consequences for Russia and we’ve proven now that our tech far outstrips and outmatches anything the Russians can muster up.
Putin wants his legacy to be that of a man that enlarged Russia and it’s territory, not that of a man that destroyed the country. He’s probably hoping that the rains start soon and then a nasty winter sets in slowing down the Ukranian advance so these 300,000 new recruits can shore up the front, dig in and then cause a stalemate for the next x-amount of years.
He can then try to spin it as a victory to the Russian population because they were able to move the Russian border up a few miles to include som new fields, woodland and villages.
Russia is the last imperial whale out there
There is center Moscow that sucks all the money from the rest country just to maintain some facade standard of living and to keep the most populated areas happy and supportive for the government…once they allow some sort of democracy in some distant parts next thing is to lose them
For Putin having independent economy from the state equals loosing control over large masses of people so the Russian state needs to be the major employer there
and all those western companies are a
real danger for his autocracy
Outside of Russia all ex Soviet satellites are reaching standard of living higher than Russia so this also represents real danger for his government
Now the Ukraine conflict…I don’t think they were ready for theirs puppet government to fall…yes he took Crimea
but the sanctions imposed do harm them and do not allow them to develop theirs economy even further
He cannot allow likes of Ukraine Georgia and others ex Soviet republics to rise high standard of living than his Russia because this reflects on his government and himself the most.
Putin knows Ukraine in NATO means unreachable like Lithuania…so after 2014 they must be having the war option on the table in real time…NATO will never include Ukraine in those conditions
his own responsibility is the Russian army
wasn’t prepared enough to solve it fast
this is an extra pressure on him
Shortly the problem is in the very construction of the present Russian state
More centralization means more problems outside of Moscow
US knowing his situation helped him to make several mistakes in a row…but he needs to stay on top to survive and this is the dangerous moment
I’m not optimistic there can be a military solution because Russia still has enormous reserves and it’s a matter of time to start producing again tanks on certain level and to press the Ukrainians hard
This can continue for long and with the speed people die there its not good at all
Russia can turn very easily into military dictatorship state now and to expect the Russian citizens to overturn the government is highly unlikely
Kadyrov’s Chechens already went. Didn’t go too well.
Now Dagestanis are fiercely resisting the draft.
Other regions that face draft are buryat and Yakuts and are being disproportionally targeted.
many Slavic Russians are also fleeing the country not wanting to go to the frontline.
This mobilisation might backfire on Putin. Handing out AKs to 300.000 unwilling participants with little to no military experience and mad wives and children at home, soon they might be pointing their Kalashnikov at the kremlin instead