I’d be surprised if the Tories got back in at the next election.
You sure? If they ditch Kemi after May 2026 and Jenrick gets the nod some sort of deal is guaranteed. Their respective policy outlines are basically the same.
The potential alternative in not doing a deal is being the 4th party in opposition with less than 30 MPs, basically extinction.
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Tories are self-serving in nature. They will absolutely do a deal if that’s what it comes down to.
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A deal yes. But one where they’re clearly the secondary party in it? I can’t see them accepting that. Their arrogance would never allow them to acknowledge someone else as their superior.
I can, however, see them doing something like making Farage the Tory leader.
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Look man, swing voters are idiots. There’s a high proportion of voters that went from Labour to Tory, back to Labour and now to Reform within the space of 10 years. Immigration has a disproportionate focus for these people.
I think the situation for Labour is salvageable with overly harsh immigration policies to placate these clowns
Possible, but I can’t vision Labour implementing something that is 1) Acceptable to it’s party without revolt and 2) is harsh enough to persuade voters. See: The welfare cuts.
Reform and that Jenrick opportunist is already at the mass deportations stage. So they’re already up against it with the narrative.
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It’s a very strange place at the moment. Generally it’s a very friendly and quiet neighbourhood, typical market town. The shopkeepers and local businesses on the high street are on constant edge at the moment. My barber today for example cannot wait to see the end of this, if there is an end.
In terms of the narrative that the media and these so called ‘citizen journalists’ are portraying, there is a fair bit of truth to it being a locally led movement. Both neighbours either side of me are going to the protests to represent it on an ad-hoc basis. In terms of the disruption and violence there is no doubt that is coming from a pocket of people outside who are travelling in.
On the whole it’s not nice. Constantly walking about town with a big police presence and having helicopters hovering the area 2-3 times a week with sirens going off. In terms of the attitudes though, it is very clear that the town is heading quickly into a reform way. The banners, people quite open to voice their stance on the situation in the cafés and even our neighbourhood friends are not afraid to voice it.
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Thank you for your perspective, that’s very valuable.
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I was chatting to an Albanian migrant who was serving us at a bar in Berlin a couple of nights ago. When I mentioned I was from London she looked worried and said that she’d been seeing on Tik-tok that London is “not so good these days because of too many migrants”.
I put her right on the fact that London became a city thanks to migrants from the Roman empire, it was later colonised by Anglo-saxons from northern Europe, became a safe-haven for those escaping the Nazis, was then populated by migrants from Africa, the Caribbean and Asia at our invitation who kept our public services running and enriched our culture, later by Europeans who like those before them (and like her in Berlin) added to the diversity in the city and provided our service sectors with much needed workers.
“London needs migrants, it has a population from around the world and I’m proud to be a Londoner because of it.” I was shocked that the lies are spreading far and wide on the internet. I was fuming about it, not at her but at the scum on social media.
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Plenty of content on Youtube among other places about the UK heading into a ‘civil war’. Of course ‘content creators’ choose to profit over social disaster (Assuming it happens in their scenario) to create ‘content’. I can’t stand these people.
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During Brexit it was “Stop talking our country down!”
Now the same people take great pleasure in doing just that.
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I wonder if in history as great empires began to wind down and fall into irrelevance, degeneracy and despair it was similar?
Like the Romans or the Greeks? The rich got to get, there Wasa decline in morals, the gap between rich and poor few, living standards fell?
I see Farage talking about renegotiating the Good Friday Agreement which is proof at least he knows Northern Ireland exists.
Potential for chaos there in a reform lead government
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They will get in but as said above it will be a disaster and not last long, end in absolute chaos and misery for us as a public.
The Conservatives will not recover the losses they had at the last election. They may make some gains but they will not be in a position to form the next Government.
Labour will inevitably lose seats at the next election, but there would have to be a historical landslide against them for them to lose their majority, and even if that happened, assuming Reform was the party that was the main challenger to Labour, you would end up with a collation between Labour and the Lib Dems, and if it was really that close, you could add the smaller parties in too…essentially an anti-Reform coalition.
The other obvious point is that the current opinion polls will not define who wins the next election. Labour have just short of 4 years to make progress with their programme and to deal with issues such as the small boats crossings and the economy. There will always be a core of people who will want to vote reform, but if the people that voted last time start to feel better off and the noise around immigration goes away, then I can see a lot of people sticking with the current Government. The economy is usually the biggest single factor which defines how people vote in elections, which is why it remains the Governments main priority.
I’d want to see any party I was thinking about voting for rule out coalition with Labour before I’d actually go out and vote.
Unless something very significant changes, I think the choice you will have at the next election is between Labour and Reform. Assuming the momentum stays with Reform as the main opposition party to challenge Labour at the next election, then a decision not to vote, means it is more likely that Reform win more seats.
I can’t see that the Lib Dems, Greens, or SNP would want to see a Reform Government, and while they may be reluctant to go into a coalition with Labour, it seems more likely given the closer alignment of ideology and policies.
However, I reiterate the point that there would have to be a total collapse at the next election for Labour to lose their majority. The only close comparison is Attlee in 1950 when he lost a majority of 146 and scraped in with a majority of 5 with his Government coming to an end in 1951 when another general election was called. Starmer’s current working majority is 157.
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I could not with a clear conscious vote for Labour at the next election.
I will vote for the Lib Dems or Corbyn’s new party.
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