Football statistics/general analysis/philosophicable pontification thread


#1

Gotta have it. Get at it @Burgundy @Mullins @Almost famous @gunnerpr


#3

First post in here will be a link to Paul Rileys Expected Goals Dashboard which allows you to look at the xG of every shot on target by any player in the Premier League during the 15/16 season.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/paul.riley#!/vizhome/PremierLeague201516xGMap/PremierLeague201516ShotonTargetxGDashboard

Giroud looks like this

You can hover over each shot to see the xG of the shot and the outcome.


#4

https://vimeo.com/167806367

https://vimeo.com/167806534


#5

I think it should just be pontification Abou my verbose chum. Next you’ll be fully embracing Americanisations and saying things like “burglarized” :grinning:

To be a bit more on topic, I enjoy reading this thread but feel too dumb to contribute lol


#6

#7

Nothing statistical. Just that live football is a lot less entertaining nowadays and at worst a fucking bore.

Everything has advanced greatly, including the quality of coaching, standard of players, fitness, conditioning, and sports science, nutrition, everything.

It’s just that as a consequence, games are a lot more tactical and tighter, making watching a live top level game now is not as exciting as it was when 4-4-2 was the norm.

I’m beginning to wish I could avoid spoilers for Match of the Day personally. Every other sport I’m following is offering so much more excitement at the moment.


#8

This thread isn’t strictly for statistics or tactical pieces, even though it may look like it is. Your post is certainly not “off topic” or anything like that.

I suppose nothing I say will make you change your mind, but what exactly was it, that you found much more exciting, when 4-4-2 was the norm?


#9

@A.F


#10

Roger Schmidt, Joachim Löw, Thomas Tuchel and Ralf Rangnick are among the smartest and most innovative coaches in the game today. If all of them like something, it’s legit.

As a Cm myself I’m loving this, really hope it’s made public soon.


#11

This is interesting, I remember commentators talking about this stuff during the EUROs. While football stats are nearly always irrelevant because they’re stats of the wrong things, they’re interpreted by people with no understanding of statistics or maths or the scientific method whatsoever, clearly there is plenty of room for improvement and I like this impect and packing stuff, it at least represents some things better than the usual suspects, as the article points out, passing %, shots, possession, corners etc. The Brazil - Germany game is a great example.

However clearly this system is still far from claiming completness, this argument for example:

. Impect disregards all passes that go backwards or don’t beat any defender. It’s a correct assessment, a pass that doesn’t travel forwards, doesn’t help you score. Can’t argue with that.

I can most definitely argue with that. Another example:

Kroos beat 85 defenders per game (!), the average of all defensive midfielders is at 28.

A team that expects to own possession plays higher up the pitch and will have fewer opponents playing higher up the pitch intercepting passes that look to go past defenders from a (supposed) defensive (?) midfielder like Kroos. There are examples of other defensive midfielders who could do a far better job for what their tactics demand from them than Kroos, which doesn’t say anything about passes beating defenders. Defensive midfielders who are brilliant at killing off spaces and passes by showing the opponent to a poorer passing alternative is not covered at all in any statistic afaik but might be absolutely massive in terms of how the game plays out just to take one example. so:

Impect metrics can totally tell you who played “better” and “should” have won or not lost, which could be huge on many levels.
talent evaluation will be revolutionized
The stats Reinartz and Hegeler came up with are nothing less than a quantum leap for football analytics

Is of course an exaggeration (and quantum leap is a funny misuse of the word since it is a leap so short it happens within the size of an atom :smiley: ). But it is definitely a statistic that adds something different to the regular crap of possession, corners and shots that we’ve been fed since forever. Ideally one wants the whole picture and this can only help. I’m looking forward to what else kind of stats we can get in the future.


#12


#13

This is cool by @AnalyseSport on Twitter.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/daniel.rhodes#!/vizhome/Goalscoring2011-2016/Goalscoring-PastFiveSeasons


#14

Very cool.

The big chances per 90 from last year (with conversion rate) is just brutal. Top four players:

Aguero (1.03 big chances per 90, 43% conversion)
Vardy (.93 big chances, 47% conversion)
Kane (.89 big chances, 49% conversion)
Walcott (.87 big chances, 21% conversion)

Lolololol.


#15

Spielverlagerung do podcasts :open_mouth:


#16

Not sure where to put this, so I guess here:

what do people think of Karanka as a managing prospect?


#17

Know little about him but he’s discussed in this article & during the podcast I posted above.


#18
  • That formation was just lot more open. Current formations just have everything bog down in the middle.
  • Wide players are now inside forwards but their defensive duties remain the same, so they can do neither job properly.
  • The box to box midfield role has been delegated to fullbacks but due to lack of bodies in the centre means the crosses are wasteful & select few fullbacks like Alves, Alaba, Alba have the ability to do something worthwhile.
  • The midfield is so tactical now. One has to be defensive, one has to be the distributor or someone who overloads the flanks, and lastly the attacking midfielder who hardly finds himself in goalscoring position. Lose this balance & you lose the game.

The below is simple way of saying it but sums it up quite nice as to why 442 remains a favourite amongst the viewers-

We have removed a striker & added a defensive midfielder.

And people love strikers.


#19

#20

Here’s a question -

If you had the authority to make the football world follow just one formation -

Which one would it be?


#21

@Trion

Certainly, teams focus even more on compactness in central areas today. This isn’t connected to any formations though; It’s just a trend and some common sense. And besides, some of the teams today, that have the kind of compactness that really stand out, are 4-4-2 teams. Just like some are 5-3-2 teams or 4-5-1 or whatever. It doesn’t really mean much because simply focusing on some numbers, tells you little.

Disagree completely with your other points and I have no idea what you’re on about, when you talk about the lack of box to box role in midfield. I mean…what the hell? :smiley: I don’t even know what to say, sorry.

And no, simply adding another striker doesn’t make you more attacking (and why assume that an extra midfielder means one more defensive midfielder?).


Btw, I listened to the Spielvergalerung podcast a few days ago, and I didn’t really like it. Structured more like a bunch of interviews, rather than a more relaxed conversation.The content wasn’t really any interesting either, despite all of them being very knowledgeable.

Not quite sure if these “tactical podcast” are worth listening to. All of them, so far, have been dull. The format, probably isn’t suited to the content.