A “vote on the final deal” is most likely a win/win for every party other than UKIP/Tories. It’s basically a free shot to have a go at the deal negotiated by May and co. over the last 2.5 years rather than a decision to not deliver Brexit. I think the perceived incompetence of completely failing to prepare for a leave scenario then spending 2.5 years supposedly negotiating and working on a deal and completely failing to deliver will cause big political damage to the Tories (I’m not saying any other party would have done any better by the way but they’re not going to be getting the blame).
I believe that 52% of people wanted to leave on the basis of whatever interpretation they convinced themselves of at the time, but I’m certain that 52% of people didn’t want to leave with no deal or a shitty deal.
At least the required 2% swing will have voted on the belief that “they need us more than we need them” which was never true and even if it was, the EU doesn’t operate solely on common sense economics. There are bigger political motives at play and keeping the union together and going in the same direction is worth more than potentially risking a few percent off GDP in the short term, and even then I’m sure French and German banks aren’t going to be too upset about potentially taking business from the City.
I remember all the “oh there’s elections coming up in [EU country]” and [EU leader] won’t want to give us a bad deal and upset their businesses come election time" but those elections have come and gone and we’ve made zero progress, and I’m sure nobody in France or Germany is going to give a shit come the next election time that the UK was offered crappy terms 4 years previously.